Simulation study on 3H behavior in the Fukushima coastal region: Comparison of influences of discharges from the Fukushima Daiichi and rivers.

The release of tritium (3H) to the ocean is planned on the coastal environment in the Fukushima coastal region from Spring or Summer of 2023. Before its release, we evaluate the effect of 3H discharges from the port of Fukushima Daiichi and rivers in the Fukushima coastal region using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (3D-Sea-SPEC). The simulation results showed that discharges from the port of Fukushima Daiichi dominantly affected the 3H concentrations in monitoring points within approximately 1 km. Moreover, the results indicate that the effect of riverine 3H discharge was limited around the river mouth under base flow conditions. However, its impact on the Fukushima coastal regions under storm flow conditions was found, and the 3H concentrations in seawater in the Fukushima coastal region were formed around 0.1 Bq/L (mean 3H concentrations in seawater in the Fukushima coastal region) in the near shore.

A modeling approach to estimate 3H discharge from rivers: Comparison of discharge from the Fukushima Dai-ichi and inventory in seawater in the Fukushima coastal region.

Estimation of 3H discharge from river catchments is important to evaluate the effect of Fukushima Dai-ichi discharge and future planned 3H release to the ocean on the coastal environment. Using a previously developed model based on the tank model and observed 3H concentration in river water, the 3H discharge from the Abukuma River and 13 other rivers in the Fukushima coastal region were estimated from June 2013 to March 2020. The 3H discharge from catchments of the Abukuma River and 13 other rivers in the Fukushima coastal region during 2014-2019 were estimated to be 1.2-4.0 TBq/y. These values were approximately 2-22 times larger than the annual 3H discharge from the Fukushima Dai-ichi after 2016, indicating the significance of 3H discharge from the catchments through the rivers. This estimation is expected to be useful to evaluate and predict 3H concentrations and inventories in the Fukushima coastal region for consideration of planned 3H release to the ocean.

Dynamics of radiocaesium within forests in Fukushima-results and analysis of a model inter-comparison.

Forests cover approximately 70% of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in 2011. Following this severe contamination event, radiocaesium (137Cs) is anticipated to circulate within these forest ecosystems for several decades. Since the accident, a number of models have been constructed to evaluate the past and future dynamics of 137Cs in these forests. To explore the performance and uncertainties of these models we conducted a model inter-comparison exercise using Fukushima data. The main scenario addressed an evergreen needleleaf forest (cedar/cypress), which is the most common and commercially important forest type in Japan. We also tested the models with two forest management scenarios (decontamination by removal of soil surface litter and forest regeneration) and, furthermore, a deciduous broadleaf forest (konara oak) scenario as a preliminary modelling study of this type of forest. After appropriate calibration, the models reproduced the observed data reliably and the ranges of calculated trajectories were narrow in the early phase after the fallout. Successful model performances in the early phase were probably attributable to the availability of comprehensive data characterizing radiocaesium partitioning in the early phase. However, the envelope of the calculated model end points enlarged in long-term simulations over 50 years after the fallout. It is essential to continue repetitive verification/validation processes using decadal data for various forest types to improve the models and to update the forecasting capacity of the models.

A modeling approach to estimate the 137Cs discharge in rivers from immediately after the Fukushima accident until 2017.

We developed a simple model to evaluate and predict the 137Cs discharge from catchments using a tank model and the L-Q equation. Using this model, the 137Cs discharge and discharge ratio from the Abukuma River and 13 other rivers in the Fukushima coastal region were estimated from immediately after the Fukushima accident up to 2017. The 137Cs discharge (and discharge ratio to the deposition inventory in the catchment) of the Abukuma River and 13 other rivers in the Fukushima coastal region during the initial six months after the accident were estimated to be 18 TBq (3.1%) and 11 TBq (0.79%), respectively. These values of 137Cs discharge ratio were 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than those observed after June 2011 in previous studies (Ueda et al., 2013; Tsuji et al., 2016; Iwagami et al., 2017a), indicating that the initial 137Cs discharge from the catchments through the rivers was significant. The simulated initial 137Cs discharge rates for the initial six months after the Fukushima accident were about 9-30 times larger in each catchment than those after that point until 2017, though initial 137Cs concentration in river water was derived from an extrapolation of data based on a two exponentially decreasing fitting. However, it was found that the impact on the ocean from the initial 137Cs discharge through the rivers can be limited because the 137Cs discharge from the Abukuma River and the 13 other rivers in the Fukushima coastal region (29 TBq) was two orders of magnitude smaller than the direct release from Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) into the ocean (3.5 PBq) and from atmospheric deposition into the ocean (7.6 PBq) (Kobayashi et al., 2013). This model is expected to be useful to evaluate and predict 137Cs discharge from catchments in future water management and in the estimation of 137Cs discharge into reservoirs and the ocean.

Numerical study of transport pathways of 137Cs from forests to freshwater fish living in mountain streams in Fukushima, Japan.

The accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011 released a large quantity of radiocesium into the surrounding environment. Radiocesium concentrations in some freshwater fish caught in rivers in Fukushima Prefecture in October 2018 were still higher than the Japanese limit of 100 Bq kg-1 for general foodstuffs. To assess the uptake of 137Cs by freshwater fish living in mountain streams in Fukushima Prefecture, we developed a compartment model for the migration of 137Cs on the catchment scale from forests to river water. We modelled a generic forest catchment with Fukushima-like parameters to ascertain the importance of three export pathways of 137Cs from forests to river water for the uptake of 137Cs by freshwater fish. The pathways were direct litter fall into rivers, lateral inflow from the forest litter layer, and lateral transfer from the underlying forest soil. Simulation cases modelling only a single export pathway did not reproduce the actual trend of 137Cs concentrations in river water and freshwater fish in Fukushima Prefecture. Simulations allowing a combined effect of the three pathways reproduced the trends well. In the latter simulations, the decreasing trend of 137Cs in river water and freshwater fish was due to a combination of the decreasing trend in the forest leaves/needles and litter compartments, and the increasing trend in soil. The modelled 137Cs concentrations within the forest compartments were predicted to reach an equilibrium state at around ten years after the fallout due to the equilibration of 137Cs cycling in forests. The model suggests that long term 137Cs concentrations in freshwater fish in mountain streams will be controlled by the transfer of 137Cs to river water from forest organic soils.

Long-term simulations of radiocesium discharge in watershed with improved radioesium wash-off model: Applying the model to Abukuma River basin of Fukushima.

In order to simulate the long-term migration and distribution of radiocesium after the Fukushima accident, a numerical model, Soil and Cesium Transport (SACT) based on universal soil loss equation (USLE), has been developed in previous studies. Although the SACT model's results on radiocesium discharge in 2011 are in reasonable agreement with field measurements, it fails to capture the sharp decrease of radiocesium flux in subsequent years, especially in the case of Abukuma River. The present work aims to improve SACT by implementing new processes for radiocesium wash-off, in which the vertical migration, and long-term fixation of radiocesium in soil are taken in to account. To understand the vertical migration process, depth profile measurement results between 2011 and 2016 have been fitted by different distribution functions and analyzed statistically. A conceptual model has been developed to describe results from recent sorption experiments, which support long-term fixation of radiocesium in soil particles. For validation purpose, the annual average radiocesium concentration in sediments discharged from Abukuma river has been evaluated from measurement data. With these improvements, the new SACT model could achieve much better agreement with the measurement results without parameter tuning.

Simulation study of the effects of buildings, trees and paved surfaces on ambient dose equivalent rates outdoors at three suburban sites near Fukushima Dai-ichi.

The influence of buildings, trees and paved surfaces on outdoor ambient dose equivalent rates (H˙∗(10)) in suburban areas near to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) was investigated with Monte Carlo simulations. Simulation models of three un-decontaminated sites in Okuma and Tomioka were created with representations of individual buildings, trees and roads created using geographic information system (GIS) data. The 134Cs and 137Cs radioactivity distribution within each model was set using in-situ gamma spectroscopy measurements from December 2014 and literature values for the relative radioactive cesium concentration on paved surfaces, unpaved land, building outer surfaces, forest litter and soil layers, and different tree compartments. Reasonable correlation was obtained between the simulations and measurements for H˙∗(10) across the sites taken in January 2015. The effect of buildings and trees on H˙∗(10) was investigated by performing simulations removing these objects, and their associated 134Cs and 137Cs inventory, from the models. H˙∗(10) were on average 5.0% higher in the simulations without buildings and trees, even though the total 134Cs and 137Cs inventory within each model was slightly lower. The simulations without buildings and trees were then modified to include 134Cs and 137Cs in the ground beneath locations where buildings exist in reality, and the inventory of paved surfaces modelled as if they had high retention of 134Cs and 137Cs fallout like soil areas. H˙∗(10) increased more markedly in these cases than when considering the shielding effect of buildings and trees alone. These results help clarify the magnitude of the effect of buildings, trees and paved surfaces on H˙∗(10) at the un-decontaminated sites within Fukushima Prefecture.

Applicability of Kd for modelling dissolved 137Cs concentrations in Fukushima river water: Case study of the upstream Ota River.

A study is presented on the applicability of the distribution coefficient (Kd) absorption/desorption model to simulate dissolved 137Cs concentrations in Fukushima river water. The upstream Ota River basin was simulated using GEneral-purpose Terrestrial Fluid-flow Simulator (GETFLOWS) for the period 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2015. Good agreement was obtained between the simulations and observations on water and suspended sediment fluxes, and on particulate bound 137Cs concentrations under both base and high flow conditions. By contrast the measured concentrations of dissolved 137Cs in the river water were much harder to reproduce with the simulations. By tuning the Kd values for large particles, it was possible to reproduce the mean dissolved 137Cs concentrations during base flow periods (observation: 0.32 Bq/L, simulation: 0.36 Bq/L). However neither the seasonal variability in the base flow dissolved 137Cs concentrations (0.14-0.53 Bq/L), nor the peaks in concentration that occurred during storms (0.18-0.88 Bq/L, mean: 0.55 Bq/L), could be reproduced with realistic simulation parameters. These discrepancies may be explained by microbial action and leaching from organic matter in forest litter providing an additional input of dissolved 137Cs to rivers, particularly over summer, and limitations of the Kd absorption/desorption model. It is recommended that future studies investigate these issues in order to improve simulations of dissolved 137Cs concentrations in Fukushima rivers.

Applicability of Kd for modelling dissolved 137Cs concentrations in Fukushima river water: Case study of the upstream Ota River.

A study is presented on the applicability of the distribution coefficient (Kd) absorption/desorption model to simulate dissolved 137Cs concentrations in Fukushima river water. The upstream Ota River basin was simulated using GEneral-purpose Terrestrial Fluid-flow Simulator (GETFLOWS) for the period 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2015. Good agreement was obtained between the simulations and observations on water and suspended sediment fluxes, and on particulate bound 137Cs concentrations under both base and high flow conditions. By contrast the measured concentrations of dissolved 137Cs in the river water were much harder to reproduce with the simulations. By tuning the Kd values for large particles, it was possible to reproduce the mean dissolved 137Cs concentrations during base flow periods (observation: 0.32 Bq/L, simulation: 0.36 Bq/L). However neither the seasonal variability in the base flow dissolved 137Cs concentrations (0.14-0.53 Bq/L), nor the peaks in concentration that occurred during storms (0.18-0.88 Bq/L, mean: 0.55 Bq/L), could be reproduced with realistic simulation parameters. These discrepancies may be explained by microbial action and leaching from organic matter in forest litter providing an additional input of dissolved 137Cs to rivers, particularly over summer, and limitations of the Kd absorption/desorption model. It is recommended that future studies investigate these issues in order to improve simulations of dissolved 137Cs concentrations in Fukushima rivers.

Evaluation of sediment and 137Cs redistribution in the Oginosawa River catchment near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant using integrated watershed modeling.

The Oginosawa River catchment lies 15 km south-west of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant and covers 7.7 km2. Parts of the catchment were decontaminated between fall 2012 and March 2014 in preparation for the return of the evacuated population. The General-purpose Terrestrial Fluid-flow Simulator (GETFLOWS) code was used to study sediment and 137Cs redistribution within the catchment, including the effect of decontamination on redistribution. Fine resolution grid cells were used to model local features of the catchment, such as paddy fields adjacent to the Oginosawa River. The simulation was verified using monitoring data for river water discharge rates (r = 0.92), suspended sediment concentrations, and particulate 137Cs concentrations (r = 0.40). Cesium-137 input to watercourses came predominantly from land adjacent to river channels and forest gullies, e.g. the paddy fields in the Ogi and Kainosaka districts, as the ground in these areas saturates during heavy rain and is easily eroded. A discrepancy between the simulation and monitoring results on the sediment discharge rate following decontamination may be explained by fast erosion occurring after decontamination. Forested areas far from the channels only made a minor contribution to 137Cs input to watercourses, total erosion of between 0.001 and 0.1 mm from May 2011 to December 2015, as ground saturation is infrequent in these areas. The 2.3-6.9% y-1 decrease in the amount of 137Cs in forest topsoil over the study period can be explained by radioactive decay (approximately 2.3% y-1), along with a migration downwards into subsoil and a small amount of export. The amount of 137Cs available for release from land adjacent to rivers is expected to be lower in future than compared to this study period, as the simulations indicate a high depletion of inventory from these areas by the end of 2015. However continued monitoring of 137Cs concentrations in river water over future years is advised, as recultivation of paddy fields by returnees may again lead to fast erosion rates and release of the remaining inventory.

Using two detectors concurrently to monitor ambient dose equivalent rates in vehicle surveys of radiocesium contaminated land.

In response to the accident at Tokyo Electric Power Company's Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP), vehicle-borne monitoring was used to map radiation levels for radiological protection of the public. By convention measurements from vehicle-borne surveys are converted to the ambient dose equivalent rate at 1 m height in the absence of the vehicle. This allows for comparison with results from other types of survey, including surveys with hand-held or airborne instruments. To improve the accuracy of the converted results from vehicle-borne surveys, we investigated combining measurements from two detectors mounted on the vehicle at different heights above the ground. A dual-detector setup was added to a JAEA monitoring car and compared against hand-held survey meter measurements in Fukushima Prefecture. The results obtained by combining measurements from two detectors were within ±20% of the hand-held reference measurements. The mean absolute percentage deviation from the reference measurements was 7.2%. The combined results from the two detectors were more accurate than those from either the roof-mounted detector, or the detector inside the vehicle, taken alone. One issue with vehicle-borne surveys is that ambient dose equivalent rates above roads are not necessarily representative of adjacent areas. This is because radiocesium is often deficient on asphalt surfaces, as it is easily scrubbed off by rain, wind and vehicle tires. To tackle this issue, we investigated mounting heights for vehicle-borne detectors using Monte Carlo gamma-ray simulations. When radiocesium is deficient on a road compared to the adjacent land, mounting detectors high on vehicles yields results closer to the values adjacent to the road. The ratio of ambient dose equivalent rates reported by detectors mounted at different heights in a dual-detector setup indicates whether radiocesium is deficient on the road compared to the adjacent land.

Coupling the advection-dispersion equation with fully kinetic reversible/irreversible sorption terms to model radiocesium soil profiles in Fukushima Prefecture.

Radiocesium is an important environmental contaminant in fallout from nuclear reactor accidents and atomic weapons testing. A modified Diffusion-Sorption-Fixation (mDSF) model, based on the advection-dispersion equation, is proposed to describe the vertical migration of radiocesium in soils following fallout. The model introduces kinetics for the reversible binding of radiocesium. We test the model by comparing its results to depth profiles measured in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, since 2011. The results from the mDSF model are a better fit to the measurement data (as quantified by R2) than results from a simple diffusion model and the original DSF model. The introduction of reversible sorption kinetics means that the exponential-shape depth distribution can be reproduced immediately following fallout. The initial relaxation mass depth of the distribution is determined by the diffusion length, which depends on the distribution coefficient, sorption rate and dispersion coefficient. The mDSF model captures the long tails of the radiocesium distribution at large depths, which are caused by different rates for kinetic sorption and desorption. The mDSF model indicates that depth distributions displaying a peak in activity below the surface are possible for soils with high organic matter content at the surface. The mDSF equations thus offers a physical basis for various types of radiocesium depth profiles observed in contaminated environments.

Characteristics of radio-cesium transport and discharge between different basins near to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant after heavy rainfall events.

This paper describes watershed modeling of catchments surrounding the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant to understand radio-cesium redistribution by water flows and sediment transport. We extended our previously developed three-dimensional hydrogeological model of the catchments to calculate the migration of radio-cesium in both sediment-sorbed and dissolved forms. The simulations cover the entirety of 2013, including nine heavy rainfall events, as well as Typhoon Roke in September 2011. Typhoons Man-yi and Wipha were the strongest typhoons in 2013 and had the largest bearing on radio-cesium redistribution. The simulated 137Cs discharge quantities over the nine events in 2013 are in good agreement with field monitoring observations. Deposition mainly occurs on flood plains and points where the river beds broaden in the lower basins, and within dam reservoirs along the rivers. Differences in 137Cs discharge ratios between the five basins are explained by differences in the initial fallout distribution within the basins, the presence of dam reservoirs, and the input supply to watercourses. It is possible to use these simulation results to evaluate future radioactive material distributions in order to support remediation planning.

Effect of Remediation Parameters on in-Air Ambient Dose Equivalent Rates When Remediating Open Sites with Radiocesium-contaminated Soil.

Calculations are reported for ambient dose equivalent rates [H˙*(10)] at 1 m height above the ground surface before and after remediating radiocesium-contaminated soil at wide and open sites. The results establish how the change in H˙*(10) upon remediation depends on the initial depth distribution of radiocesium within the ground, on the size of the remediated area, and on the mass per unit area of remediated soil. The remediation strategies considered were topsoil removal (with and without recovering with a clean soil layer), interchanging a topsoil layer with a subsoil layer, and in situ mixing of the topsoil. The results show the ratio of the radiocesium components of H˙*(10) post-remediation relative to their initial values (residual dose factors). It is possible to use the residual dose factors to gauge absolute changes in H˙*(10) upon remediation. The dependency of the residual dose factors on the number of years elapsed after fallout deposition is analyzed when remediation parameters remain fixed and radiocesium undergoes typical downward migration within the soil column.

Numerical study of sediment and 137Cs discharge out of reservoirs during various scale rainfall events.

Contamination of reservoirs with radiocesium is one of the main concerns in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. We performed simulations using the three-dimensional finite volume code FLESCOT to understand sediment and radiocesium transport in generic models of reservoirs with parameters similar to those in Fukushima Prefecture. The simulations model turbulent water flows, transport of sediments with different grain sizes, and radiocesium migration both in dissolved and particulate forms. To demonstrate the validity of the modeling approach for the Fukushima environment, we performed a test simulation of the Ogaki Dam reservoir over Typhoon Man-yi in September 2013 and compared the results with field measurements. We simulated a set of generic model reservoirs systematically varying features such as flood intensity, reservoir volume and the radiocesium distribution coefficient. The results ascertain how these features affect the amount of sediment or 137Cs discharge downstream from the reservoirs, and the forms in which 137Cs is discharged. Silt carries the majority of the radiocesium in the larger flood events, while the clay-sorbed followed by dissolved forms are dominant in smaller events. The results can be used to derive indicative values of discharges from Fukushima reservoirs under arbitrary flood events. For example the generic model simulations indicate that about 30% of radiocesium that entered the Ogaki Dam reservoir over the flood in September 2015 caused by Typhoon Etau discharged downstream. Continued monitoring and numerical predictions are necessary to quantify future radiocesium migration in Fukushima Prefecture and evaluate possible countermeasures since reservoirs can be a sink of radiocesium.

Evaluation of ambient dose equivalent rates influenced by vertical and horizontal distribution of radioactive cesium in soil in Fukushima Prefecture.

The air dose rate in an environment contaminated with (134)Cs and (137)Cs depends on the amount, depth profile and horizontal distribution of these contaminants within the ground. This paper introduces and verifies a tool that models these variables and calculates ambient dose equivalent rates at 1 m above the ground. Good correlation is found between predicted dose rates and dose rates measured with survey meters in Fukushima Prefecture in areas contaminated with radiocesium from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. This finding is insensitive to the choice for modeling the activity depth distribution in the ground using activity measurements of collected soil layers, or by using exponential and hyperbolic secant fits to the measurement data. Better predictions are obtained by modeling the horizontal distribution of radioactive cesium across an area if multiple soil samples are available, as opposed to assuming a spatially homogeneous contamination distribution. Reductions seen in air dose rates above flat, undisturbed fields in Fukushima Prefecture are consistent with decrement by radioactive decay and downward migration of cesium into soil. Analysis of remediation strategies for farmland soils confirmed that topsoil removal and interchanging a topsoil layer with a subsoil layer result in similar reductions in the air dose rate. These two strategies are more effective than reverse tillage to invert and mix the topsoil.

Sediment and (137)Cs behaviors in the Ogaki Dam Reservoir during a heavy rainfall event.

We performed a simulation of sediment and (137)Cs behaviors in the Ogaki Dam Reservoir, one of the main irrigation reservoirs in the Fukushima prefecture, Japan, during a heavy rainfall event occurred in 2013. The one-dimensional river and reservoir simulation scheme TODAM, Time-dependent One-dimensional Degradation and Migration, was applied for calculating the time dependent migration of sediment and (137)Cs in dissolved and sediment-sorbed forms in the reservoir. Continuous observational data achieved in the upper rivers were used as the input boundary conditions for the simulation. The simulation results were compared with the continuous data achieved in the lower river and we confirmed the predicted values of sediment and (137)Cs in sediment-sorbed form at the exit of reservoir satisfactorily reproduced the observational data. We also performed sediment and (137)Cs behavioral simulation by changing the water level of the reservoir, because such a dam operation could control the quantities of sediment and (137)Cs discharge from and/or deposition in the reservoir. The simulation clarified that the reservoir played an important role to delay and buffer the movement of radioactive cesium in heavy rainfall events and the buffer effect of the reservoir depended on particle sizes of suspended sediment and the water level. It was also understood that silt deposition was the main source of the bed contamination (except for the initial fallout impact), while clay was the main carrier of (137)Cs to the lower river at a later stage of rainfall events.